Cavaliers vs. Magic Game 6 prediction, odds, expert pick for Friday 5/3

Cavaliers vs. Magic Odds

Friday, May 3, 7 p.m., ESPN

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Cleveland Cavaliers

I actually think the Cavs get it done here. Cleveland is still the superior team, they have all the reasons and narrative angles to play with a large sense of urgency, and Orlando has had a few outlier shooting performances.

I expect an offensive boost for the Cavaliers — who have the worst net offensive rating in the first round — and a dip for the Magic.

Lastly, the health of Jarrett Allen will be key. As of this writing, he's questionable but likely to give it a go, so I'm factoring in a "probable" Allen into my cap.

Orlando Magic

The Orlando Magic lost by one point in Game 5, but upon a closer look, there's a different story to be told. They were down pretty much the entire game, and the one-point loss was due to late-game fouling and a 3-pointer being hit as time expired that made no difference (except for spread bettors).

Paolo Banchero is coming off a playoff breakout 39-point performance, which also to my observant eye felt a bit lucky. He hit some consistent 3s and even long fade away 2s, which are generally not part of his game.

The Cavaliers know how intense closeout games can be, but I'm excited to see how the Magic fare with the increased intensity. They looked a bit overwhelmed in the first two games, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them overwhelmed by the heightened physicality and mental focus needed in a closeout games, too.

Cavaliers vs. Magic

Betting Pick & Prediction

The market read shows some value on the Cavaliers. In Games 3 and 4 in Orlando, the Magic closed as a spread favorite of -2.5 and obviously won and covered both games.

As mentioned above, the one-point loss in Game 5 is a bit of a false flag because it was a desperation and meaningless 3 to close the gap.

Finally, the uncertainty around Allen is also factored in. I ultimately think Allen is active, and this moves a full point back towards the Cavs to close at +3. Thats why I like grabbing the value now at the 4, as it probably just stays there if Allen is out.

There has been consistent steam towards the under. I personally played under 203.5, and I would take the under at any number above 200. Game 6 unders is a solid trend explored on recent episodes of the 'BUCKETS' podcast.

Pick: Cavaliers +4 | Cavs +150 ML | Cavs -4 Alt (+215) | Under 200.5